Ontario could see ‘significant uptick’ in COVID cases as China locks down millions

Driven by an even more contagious COVID subvariant of Omicron called BA.2, China’s government has ordered Jilin province, home to 24-million people, into lockdown.

Mainland China’s case counts are small relative to other countries — authorities reported 1,437 new cases Monday — but in Hong Kong, the variant has overwhelmed the city, and many hospitals have reportedly been swamped.

China, where COVID-19 was first detected in late 2019, has held a stern “zero-COVID” guideline which is enforced by speedy lockdowns and public health measures, travel restrictions and mass testing.

Should Ontario be concerned about this?

Epidemiologist Colin Furness told CityNews it’s hard to know because Ontario does not have a clear picture about how many people have already had Omicron.

“If lots of people have had Omicron, BA.2 is going to make matters worse but not seriously so. If they haven’t, we could see a significant uptick. Denmark is seeing that. China is seeing that — that’s entirely possible that’s our future, but it’s hard to know because we are so blind.”

The Ministry of Health said so far there’s no evidence that BA.2 results in more severe outcomes.

“While there are genetic differences between BA.2 and BA.1, early information suggests that while BA.2 is more transmissible than BA.1, there are no differences in hospitalizations or vaccine effectiveness between BA.1 and BA.2,” it said in a statement to CityNews.

“Ontario continues to monitor the latest evidence around BA.2.”

Back in February, Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore said more data will be needed to paint a complete picture of the threat from BA.2.

“It is something, I think internationally, we are going to need large numbers to be able to ascertain if there is an increase in virulence. We do anticipate that there is an increase of transmissibility of BA.2. We will be monitoring vaccine effectiveness against it, but there is nothing from our immunologists or Public Health Ontario scientists that have told us that they are concerned about the vaccine escape with this strain.

Furness, however, warns that the Ford government’s decision to ease masking rules on March 21 could make matters worse when it comes to BA.2

“Being more contagious means people that have managed to stay safe so far are going to have a harder time staying safe. If you combine BA.2 with taking your masks off, you’re going to get a significant rise in cases.”

Furness says what’s not clear at this point is if the subvariant will lead to significantly higher hospitalizations in Ontario.

“There will be some rise in hospitalizations. It could be large. The big problem is we don’t know how much population immunity we have.”

Opposition NDP leader Andrea Horwath says she worries the government is relaxing COVID-19 rules like masking too quickly.

“You don’t throw in the towel at the end of the fight, you stay strong right until the very end, and that’s what we’re going to need to do.”