Greater Toronto home sales ticking downward despite interest rate drops: TRREB

TORONTO — The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in July were up from last year but down from a month earlier, despite a jump in listings.

The board said Tuesday there were 5,391 homes sold in July in the Greater Toronto Area, down about 13 per cent from June, when 6,202 properties changed hands.

July marked the second lowest month for sales this year, coming in after January, when 4,179 properties were bought. From January, sales ticked higher to reach 7,083 in April before falling steadily every month since.

The recent decreases suggest buyers aren’t moving off the sidelines of the housing market as fast as some expected when interest and mortgage rates began to inch lower in recent months.

“The interest rate reductions to date have not been enough of a push to get buyers and sellers back into the market with any sense of urgency,” said Cailey Heaps, president and chief executive of the Heaps Estrin Real Estate Team in Toronto, in an email.

“Recent reductions are certainly a positive sign, but the market is still behaving cautiously given continued uncertainty and weakness in the broader economy.”

She anticipates a “slow and steady climb” back to a balanced market, especially given how “notoriously unpredictable” this summer has proven.

National Bank of Canada economist Daren King felt similarly.

“Toronto’s job market has deteriorated rapidly in recent months, and to a greater extent than in the country as a whole, which should weigh on the dynamism of the real estate market,” he said in a note to clients.

He urged people to be “prudent” about any rebound in market activity they’re seeing.

TRREB president Jennifer Pearce, for example, saw some “encouraging” signs in the numbers. In particular, she pointed out there was a 3.3 per cent rise in year-over-year home sales.

She expects further rate drops to soon cajole people back into the market.

“The cost of borrowing is anticipated to decline further in the coming months,” she said. “Expect sales to accelerate as buyers benefit from lower monthly mortgage payments.”

The buyers that have waded into the market early have found plenty of choice as sellers have increasingly moved to put their home up for sale in recent months,

New listings totalled 16,296 in July, up 18.5 per cent from last year. Listings growth outpaced sales on a year-over-year basis.

“As more buyers take advantage of more affordable mortgage payments in the months ahead, they will benefit from the substantial buildup in inventory,” TRREB’s chief market analyst Jason Mercer said.

“This will initially keep home prices relatively flat. However, as inventory is absorbed, market conditions will tighten in the absence of a large-scale increase in home completions, ultimately leading to a resumption of price growth.”

The average selling price in July was $1,106,617, down 0.9 per cent from July 2023, when it was $1,116,950. It was also down from June, when the average home sold for $1,161,994.

The average detached home price in July was $1,425,927 for the GTA, while the average condo price was $718,698.

The composite benchmark price, which aims to represent typical homes, was down five per cent in July from a year earlier.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 6, 2024.

Tara Deschamps, The Canadian Press