Ontario election 2025: Key ridings to watch in the GTA

An Elections Ontario sign ahead of the 2025 provincial vote on Feb. 7, 2025. (Nick Westoll/CityNews)

Posted February 27, 2025 3:44 pm.

Last Updated February 27, 2025 11:20 pm.

The Progressive Conservatives kept their majority in the provincial legislature and the NDP will remain the Official Opposition following the results of the 2025 Ontario election.

Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie failed to win her Mississauga riding, but the Liberals did regain party status, thanks in part to flipped seats in two key GTA ridings.

This article will be updated as the results are released.

Beaches-East York

PC: Anna Michaelidis – 9,001 (21.39 per cent)

Liberal: Mary-Margaret McMahon (incumbent) WINNER – 21,545 (51.21 per cent)

NDP: Kate Dupuis – 9,660 (22.96 per cent)

Green: Jack Pennings – 1,298 (3.09 per cent)

The east end Toronto riding has flipped between Liberals and NDP for the last four elections, but the Liberals managed to hold onto the seat with former Toronto city councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon capturing the seat once again.

McMahon is running again as the incumbent against NDP candidate Kate Dupuis, who finished a close second behind McMahon in 2022. Can she capture the seat in this election?

Brampton Centre

PC: Charmaine Williams (incumbent) WINNER – 12,466 (51.97 per cent)

Liberal: Martin Medeiros – 8,098 (33.76 per cent)

NDP: Sukhamrit Singh – 2,109 (8.79 per cent)

Green: Pauline Thornham – 892 (3.72 per cent)

PC candidate Charmaine Williams was able to hold on for her second straight term in Brampton Centre after winning the riding handily in 2022.

Eglinton-Lawrence

PC: Michelle Cooper WINNER – 19,556 (48.48 per cent)

Liberal: Vince Gasparro – 19,389 (48.07 per cent)

NDP: Withdrawn

Green: Leah Tysoe – 1,390 (3.45 per cent)

With 100 per cent of polls reporting, PC candidate Michelle Cooper has won by the very small margin of 167 votes.

NDP candidate Natasha Doyle-Merrick stepped down to avoid vote splitting, but her withdrawal didn’t give the Liberal candidate Vince Gasparro the edge to capture the seat in 2025.

Etobicoke-Lakeshore

PC: Christine Hogarth (incumbent) – 21,050 (40.54 per cent)

Liberal: Lee Fairclough WINNER – 25,195 (48.52 per cent)

NDP: Rozhen Asrani – 3,640 (7.01 per cent)

Green: Sean McClocklin – 1,218 (2.35 per cent)

The Liberals managed to flip Etobicoke-Lakeshore for the first time since 2018 with Lee Fairclough beating incumbent PC candidate Christine Hogarth.

Mississauga East-Cooksville

PC: Silvia Gualtieri WINNER – 16,763 (46.46 per cent)

Liberal: Bonnie Crombie (leader) – 15,536 (43.06 per cent)

NDP: Alex Venuto – 1,876 (5.2 per cent)

Green: David Zeni – 743 (2.06 per cent)

Liberal leader and former Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie lost her seat in Mississauga East-Cooksville, meaning she will not sit in the Ontario legislature in this government.

Silvia Gualtieri, a former city councillor in Mississauga and the mother-in-law of Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown, beat Crombie.

Parkdale-High Park

PC: Justine Teplycky – 8,058 (17.82 per cent)

Liberal: Nadia Guerrera – 13,941 (30.82 per cent)

NDP: Alexa Gilmour WINNER – 20,508 (45.34 per cent)

Green: Anna Gorka – 1,978 (4.37 per cent)

An NDP stronghold has stayed orange thanks for the large victory from Alexa Gilmour, a United Church minister and local community organizer.

Scarborough-Agincourt:

PC: Aris Babikian (incumbent) WINNER – 13,486 (49.23 per cent)

Liberal: Peter Yeun – 11,430 (41.78 per cent)

NDP: Francesca Policarpio – 1,368 (5 per cent)

Green: Stephanie LeBlanc -556 (2.03 per cent)

In Scarborough Agincourt, Aris Babikian has won in his third term as MPP, beating former deputy Toronto Police Chief Peter Yeun, the Liberal candidate, by nearly 2,000 votes

Toronto-St. Paul’s

PC: Riley Braunstein – 10,745 (25.35 per cent)

Liberal: Stephanie Smyth WINNER – 17,328 (40.88 per cent)

NDP: Jill Andrews (incumbent) – 13,446 (31.72 per cent)

Green: Chloe Tangpongprush – 868 (2.05 per cent)

The Liberals were able to unseat the NDP using a well-known name in Toronto St. Paul’s. NDP incumbent Jill Andrews lost to former broadcaster Stephanie Smyth.

York South-Weston

PC: Mohamed Firin WINNER – 11,143 (35.15 per cent)

Liberal: Daniel Di Giorgio – 10,999 (34.7 per cent)

NDP: Faisal Hassan – 8,101 (25.56 per cent)

Green: Lilian Barrera – 844 (2.66 per cent)

York South-Weston will stay blue, but by a very narrow margin. Mohamed Firin captured the victory by less than 150 votes with Liberal candidate Daniel Di Giorgio finishing second. Faisal Hassan, the NDP candidate and former MPP, finished third.

Ridings to watch outside the GTA

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte

PC: Doug Downey (incumbent) WINNER – 20,011 (49.85 per cent)

Liberal: Rose Zacharias – 14,325 (35.68 per cent)

NDP: Tracey Lapham – 2,677 (6.67 per cent)

Green: Tim Grant – 1,622 (4.04 per cent)

The PC candidate, Doug Downey, didn’t have to sweat as much as he did in 2022, handedly winning his seat for the third term by a large margin.

Hamilton Centre

PC: Sarah Bokhari – 6,297 (18.89 per cent)

Liberal: Eileen Walker – 7,102 (21.3 per cent)

NDP: Robin Lennox WINNER – 12,801 (38.39 per cent)

Green: Lucia Iannantuono – 1,634 (4.9 per cent)

Independent: Sarah Jama (incumbent) – 4,962 (14.88 per cent)

A long-held NDP riding will stay orange as Robin Lennox is projected to win the seat over incumbent Independent Sarah Jama.

Jama won the seat in a 2023 by-election when former NDP leader Andrea Horwath resigned, but she was kicked out of the party less than a year later after a series of events that began with a statement on the Israel-Hamas war that failed to mention the attack on Israeli civilians.