AP delegate count: Trump not yet on track to win nomination
Posted March 2, 2016 11:39 am.
Last Updated March 2, 2016 1:17 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
WASHINGTON – Despite Donald Trump’s string of victories on Tuesday, he has to do better in upcoming contests to claim the Republican nomination for president before the party’s national convention this summer, an AP delegate count shows.
Delegates to the convention choose the presidential nominee. On the Republican side, it takes 1,237 delegates to win. Ted Cruz is emerging as the candidate who could stop Trump — with a little help from Marco Rubio.
A close look at the delegate math illustrates Trump’s problem. So far Trump has won only 46 per cent of the delegates that have been awarded, even though he has won 10 of the first 15 contests. It takes an outright majority of delegates to win the nomination.
Going forward, Trump would have to win 52 per cent of the remaining delegates to claim the nomination. That’s doable but difficult with three or more candidates claiming delegates.
That’s good news for Republican leaders in Washington and state houses across the country, who are deeply concerned about Trump’s electability, temperament and command of the issues.
Texas Sen. John Cornyn said Wednesday morning that Trump’s remaining rivals — Cruz, Rubio, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Ben Carson — are looking at their own chances and the possibility of a so-called brokered convention and “figure that they’ll hang in there as long as they can.”
The possibility of a contested convention, which would come if no candidate claims a majority of delegates before the July convention, could wreak havoc on the Republicans— particularly if Trump has an overwhelming delegate lead that’s just short of the needed majority.
“If the establishment thinks there’s a backlash now, wait until the guy with the most delegates gets to the convention and they decide to take it from him,” said Republican operative Hogan Gidley. “Then you’re going to see an all-out political jihad.”
On Tuesday, Cruz muted Trump’s delegate gains by winning delegate-rich Texas, which is Cruz’s home state.
Trump could take a major step forward in upcoming winner-take-all elections in the middle of the month, however, and all of his rivals are doing considerably worse than the New York real estate mogul.
The delegate math shows the importance of the March 15 primaries in Florida and Ohio, in which the statewide winner gets all the delegates. Winning those states could boost Trump to a commanding lead in the delegate count, but Florida is Rubio’s home state and Ohio is home for John Kasich, the state’s governor.