With some leaves dropping now, what kind of fall colours might Toronto see?

If you’ve been out and about in the Greater Toronto Area you might have noticed some trees slowly changing colour or dropping leaves, but experts say that doesn’t necessarily mean autumn will be coming earlier this year.

However, there’s potentially good news for leaf-peeping enthusiasts: There could be more vibrant tree foliage this fall if the drier weather holds out.

Ralph Toninger, the associate director of restoration and resource management with the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, told CityNews it has been a “very dry” season overall when it comes to trees, prompting early leaf loss.

“In really dry years they will reduce the number of leaves to basically retain moisture and to give them the best chance to survive the winter, so they’ll drop some leaves early, extraneous or extra leaves – particularly in a year like this when we had a wet, early spring, which would have resulted in more leaf flush,” he said.

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“Definitely don’t worry. Trees have evolved to take highs and lows and extremes.”

As for when exactly we’ll see fall colours, he said it’s “really hard” to currently pinpoint that. However, Toninger said the next few weeks will help dictate what’s to come.

“The key determinant is September, the early part of September, where we will see the leaves begin to shut down and if you have a dry September and with some cold nights then that will typically give rise to the (vibrant) colour change,” he said, noting leaves normally fall in the first week or two of October.

“If it is very warm and moist, the trees will continue to photosynthesize. The red and yellow colours are actually because the tree breaks down the green chlorophyll and then those other colours come through.”

Toninger said later this year TRCA staff will be posting more information on the agency’s website about where to find the best fall colours relative to the time someone is checking.

Greater Toronto Area saw drier-than-average conditions in late spring, early summer: Environment Canada

Geoff Coulson, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada, said much of the Greater Toronto Area has seen a lack of precipitation going back to April and that it has been several years since we have seen consistent dryness throughout spring and summer months.

He said April had 50 millimetres of precipitation (the long-term average for the month is 68.5), May had 46.8 millimetres (the long-term monthly average is 74.3), June 40.4 (the long-term average for the month is 71.5) and July 43.6 (the long-term monthly average is 75.7).

However, in August, Coulson said there were four days that brought the bulk of the precipitation seen that month. The long-term average is 78.1 millimetres and by the end of the month there was 80 millimetres.

“Really flashy precipitation, a lot falling quickly and not necessarily the more beneficial multiple days of rain where the ground can soften up and absorb it better,” he said.

As for what we can expect into the fall, Coulson said the short-term outlook indicated there might be a warmer-than-normal September with a drier first half of the month. He said modelling suggests a wetter second half of the month.

“The temperature indications are that both October and November could be somewhat warmer than normal, but at this point there’s no real good handle on what the precipitation trend is going to be for those two months,” Coulson said.