True measure of Omicron spread likely blunted by testing capacity

As daunting as recent COVID-19 case numbers in Ontario have been, experts believe the real number of infections is likely being blurred by the province’s testing backlog.

Infectious disease expert Dr. Isaac Bogoch spoke to Breakfast Television on Friday morning and said test positivity numbers offer a glimpse into the true measure of Omicron spread. He says the actual numbers are almost certainly much higher than what is being reported.

“There is certainly limitations to the testing capacity,” said Bogoch. “That number of reported cases is not reflective of the true burden.”

ICYMI: Dr. @BogochIsaac joined us this morning to discuss rapidly rising #COVID19 case numbers – and how long he predicts the duration of this wave will be. pic.twitter.com/Cc9uBKFKSh

— Breakfast Television (@breakfasttv) December 24, 2021

In Ontario, a pandemic high for test positivity rate came with another all-time high of nearly 10,000 new infections on Friday. The test positivity rate of 18.7 per cent was almost 8 percentage points higher than the highest rate recorded in the peak of the third wave in April.

In Montreal, health officials recently confirmed that one of every five tests for the virus was coming back positive.

Even if the more transmissible Omicron proves to be a less severe variant, health experts say the vast number of cases will still put pressure on health care systems.

“The silver lining is this might be a less deadly variant,” said Bogoch. “(But) when you have so many people infected even a small percentage that land in hospitals ends up being a lot of people.”

Related: Majority of Canadians concerned they will get infected with Omicron: poll

As of Thursday there were 440 people hospitalized in the province with COVID-19 — that compares to nearly 2,000 people in hospital beds the last time Ontario was seeing record case counts during the third wave in April.

The latest preliminary findings from the U.K. Health Security Agency add to emerging evidence that Omicron produces significantly milder illness than other variants, such as Delta, even though it spreads much faster and better evades vaccines.

Bogoch says he expects cases to continue to rise with more opportunities for transmission as people gather for the holidays. He estimates a peak could occur shortly after Jan. 1.

“When we look elsewhere in the world we see these rapid rises in cases, but it’s actually followed pretty quickly by a rapid decline in cases,” he said. “My guess is we would see that decline sometime in early January.”

Related:

• Booster shots and COVID test kits topping Canadian’s wish lists

• How and when to use COVID rapid tests for holiday gatherings

Many have scrambled to find tests and booster shots in the last week to try and keep holiday gatherings as safe as possible.

The University Health Network is urging those with no symptoms or mild symptoms to avoid going to their emergency departments for testing.

“Coming to the emergency department risks exposing vulnerable people to the coronavirus,” reads a statement from UHN. “For testing, please book an appointment at your local COVID assessment centre.”

Bogoch says the rapid test can be a handy tool in keeping holiday celebrations safe, but only if they’re used correctly. He says if people are getting together with friends and family, tests should be done as close to the gathering as possible to ensure the best protection.

“That we would be a helpful added layer of protection, they’re really helpful but they are not perfect,” he says.

Some have expressed frustration with the province’s booster rollout, with some Ontarians unable find appointments until February.

The province announced the opening of a new mass vaccination clinic in Mississauga on Wednesday as they continue their efforts to increase vaccine capacity. The new clinic will administer around 19,000 doses per day at full capacity.

In their latest pandemic modelling two weeks ago, Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table projected case counts could reach 10,000 per day and ICU occupancy would surpass 600 by the end of the month if no further public health measures were implemented.

The Ford government announced new restrictions last week that lowered capacity limits at most indoor settings and reduced social gathering limits. The new measures went into effect on Sunday.