Ontario budget 2025 to be tabled at Queen’s Park amid current economic uncertainty

As Ontario continues to deal with economic uncertainty due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, Premier Doug Ford’s government is tabling its budget and fiscal projections for 2025 and early 2026.

“It’s going to be a good budget,” Ford touted during a Wednesday news conference on trade between Ontario and Manitoba.

“It’s going to be about building our province, creating more jobs (and) more opportunities, making ourselves more competitive, putting money back into people’s pockets, supporting businesses through some of these tough times with these tariffs.

In the 2024 fall economic statement, provincial officials projected the deficit for the 2025-2026 fiscal year would be cut to $1.5 billion, followed by a $900-million surplus the following year. Many will be looking to see how those figures will be impacted.

Ford said the tariffs forced the government to change its budget plans and to put an additional focus on building infrastructure.

“We can always balance a year or two, but what scares me is governments that start slashing and burning. We’ve never done that and we never will,” he said.

Like other provincial budgets in recent years, Ford and various cabinet ministers announced items they believe are key to the fiscal blueprint.

Permanently removing tolls on the eastern part of Highway 407, keeping a gas tax cut, expanding a manufacturing tax credit, allowing businesses to defer certain taxes by six months (worth around $9 billion), issuing Workplace Safety and Insurance Board rebates to businesses deemed safe employers and funding for new primary health care and teaching clinics were all announced in advance of budget day.

However, the budget legislation is expected to contain non-spending measures. Sources told 680 NewsRadio Toronto that additional bike lanes in the province’s biggest city could be removed.

A recent report from Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office said American tariffs will reduce demand for Ontario’s exports, slowing real GDP growth from the projected 1.7 per cent to 0.6 per cent, which “implies that a modest recession would occur in 2025.”

The FAO estimated the tariffs would result in 68,100 fewer jobs in Ontario in 2025. 

Daniel Tisch, president and CEO of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, said he wants to see investments to help grow the economy.

“We want to see efforts to make the business environment even more competitive. We want to see significant investments in people and talent,” he told CityNews on Wednesday.

As for opposition parties in Ontario, all three at Queen’s Park had priorities ahead of the budget, but the leaders didn’t provide specific allocations they had in mind.

Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles said the plan “will be a test of the government.”

“Will they choose to strengthen Ontario (by) building hospitals, creating jobs and opportunities in health care, in transportation, in infrastructure, or will they choose more vanity projects like we’ve seen with this premier and his priorities?” she said, referring to building a tunnel under Highway 401 and the spa redevelopment at Ontario Place.

“We want to see the government talk about how we’re going to build new supply chains, how we’re going to tariff-proof our province. A lot of that also involves making sure that Ontarians have access to the best quality health care, the best schools, a strong post-secondary education system … we have an opportunity here, but it’s going to mean the government is going to have to get back in the business of actually funding that social infrastructure that so many Ontarians depend on.”

Bonnie Crombie, leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, said her caucus wants to see middle-class, small business and home heating-related tax cuts along with more spending on health care, education, and new housing incentives.

“We have to put more money back in the hands of people. People are really struggling, many sectors are facing huge job losses, and people are really worried. This is a time right now where there is so much uncertainty that putting back more money in their pockets that they can control, it’s the right thing to do,” she said.

Green Party of Ontario leader Mike Schreiner said he and his party are looking for measures on home affordability, farm and food production protection, health, education and “made-in-Ontario” renewable energy. As for what he didn’t want to see, Schreiner had one project in mind.

“I don’t want to see hundreds of billions of dollars wasted on a ridiculous tunnel under the 401 when we have cheaper solutions to traffic like paying the tolls for truckers on the 407,” he said, calling for a prioritization of transit.

The budget is the first one after Ford called a snap election earlier in the year. Residents in the province elected a similar-sized Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario majority government for a third time.

Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will present the government’s plan at Queen’s Park just after 4 p.m. on Thursday.

CityNews will have complete coverage of the budget on CityNews 24/7. Click here to watch.

With files from Mark McAllister and The Canadian Press