Dynamics of mayoral election won’t change much with Doug Ford, analysts say
Posted September 12, 2014 4:46 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
Mayoral candidate Doug Ford will be able to claim Rob Ford’s political successes as his own without the baggage from the plethora of scandals that have trailed his brother, analysts say, but the overall dynamics of the campaign will remain unchanged.
CityNews.ca spoke to 680News political specialist John Stall and Maclean’s journalist Charlie Gillis on Friday following news that Rob Ford was withdrawing from the mayoral race to run for council and Doug would run for the city’s top job.
“The core message of the campaign won’t change,” Stall said. “The rhetoric of championing the track record … the saving of the money, the cranes on the street, the bustling tourism, (Doug) can and will go out there and say that’s all because of the Fords.”
Candidate John Tory was the frontrunner in the latest polls, while Olivia Chow trailed in third place.
Gillis said the “Tory versus Ford” storyline will continue to dominate leading up to the Oct. 27 election.
“The basic dynamics of the campaign, which is now Tory versus Ford, I think is roughly the same,” Gillis said.
“The one thing Doug does have going for him is you get the Ford agenda without instability.”
Stall said Tory and Chow will have less ammunition at their disposal with the switch to Doug.
“What is going to be absent from the mix is their ability to point to a Rob Ford record of personal misbehaviour,” he said. “That will be absent from it.”
But whether Doug can capture the public’s imagination the way his burly brother has remains to be seen.
The two may share political views and philosophies, but voters will be confronted with two unique personalities.
“It will be fascinating to see whether or not the change of personality has any effect on the level of public support,” Stall said.
“My instinct would be that Doug does not have the kind of likeability factor that Rob has.”
Gillis also thinks Doug lacks the persona that has propelled Rob to worldwide fame.
“I think Doug lacks the common touch that Rob has. He doesn’t have the warmth of personality,” he said.
“One thing about Rob Ford: when you’re around him he just manages to exude a sense that he wants you to like him. Even when he’s saying things that he knows are divisive, he’s a guy who basically wants to be liked. I don’t get that from Doug.”
Either way, Gillis sees an uphill battle when it comes to a Ford finding his way back in the mayor’s seat.
“Two-thirds of people who are polled in the city are saying under no circumstances would they vote for Rob Ford,” he said. “This is before, of course, he fell ill, but there’s a really hardened attitude towards the Fords right now (and) I don’t think Doug makes that any better.
“I think the ‘anybody but Ford’ feeling is still there. Voters who are coalescing around Tory right now are people who want to stop Rob Ford and some of them used to be with Olivia Chow and (she) has been losing them steadily.”
Both say there are some positive aspects to Doug Ford that voters may embrace.
“Doug is seen as the more stable business guy and perhaps the smarter of the two when it comes to business,” Stall said.
Gillis added: “I see a concerned older brother looking out for his troubled younger brother, and that’s a good starting point for him.”
You can be rest assured, Gillis stressed, that Doug will still be targeted by his rivals.
“I’ve spoken to people in Tory’s camp today. They see pressure points with Doug,” he said. “They’ll come after Doug in different ways.”
“Look for Tory’s group to come after him and make him out to be an autocrat and somebody who doesn’t listen to people. I think they will work very hard to dispel the notion that he is a man of the people the way Rob was successful at projecting.”
Stall says he wasn’t surprised to learn that Mayor Ford would run for council after announcing he was withdrawing from the mayor’s race.
“Being a councillor is not as rigorous as being the mayor,” he said. “You can back in and out more easily … without anybody getting too upset about it. So when your strength is there you can participate … and he can be a vote for his brother if his brother succeeds in winning this.
“Politics is like a drug. He’s really addicted to politics.”
