‘$55 billion’: Expert pegs ballpark cost of Ford’s Hwy. 401 tunnel proposal

Premier Doug Ford’s proposal to construct a tunnel below Highway 401 could cost taxpayers $55 billion, according to Dr. Shoshanna Saxe, an Associate Professor in the University of Toronto’s Department of Civil and Mineral Engineering.

The Premier made the announcement on Wednesday, elaborating on the province’s active and ongoing “technical evaluation” to explore how the expressway can provide a “new, faster route” for some roadways north of Toronto, extending beyond Brampton and Mississauga to Markham and Scarborough.

“It will be one of the world’s longest tunnels,” Premier Ford said. “If they’re telling me 30 kilometres is x, 40 kilometres is y, and 70 kilometres or 60 kilometres is another cost, let’s take a look at it. That will determine the length of this tunnel and that’s why we’re doing the feasibility study. But we’re going to get the job done, mark my words.”

Dr. Saxe, who holds a PhD in engineering from the University of Cambridge, estimates the projected cost at approximately $1 billion per kilometre. Premier Ford has not released any cost estimates or information about the exact route or length of the tunnel.

“It could certainly be more than that,” says Dr. Saxe of her $55 billion projection, adding that most of the cost would be associated with the construction of the tunnel itself.

“So the materials you need for construction, the people who work on the construction, the tunnel boring machines. Some money needs to be spent on planning.”

Dr. Saxe explains that the tunnel would require a “huge amount of infrastructure,” including many air shafts, emergency exits, and underground interchanges. A sizeable boring machine must also be deep in the ground to build a multi-lane highway.

Traffic disruptions

Building the tunnel could take up to 20 years to complete, says Dr. Saxe, who warns the process will be “disruptive” to traffic on Hwy. 401.

“You can’t dig for 55 kilometres without stopping,” says Dr. Saxe. “You only go for a few kilometres at a time before you need another hole and a way to deal with the equipment and get the dirt out. There is no way not to bother the highway.”

Opposition leaders strongly criticized Premier Ford’s proposal, with Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner calling it “a complete joke” and Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie referring to it as a “pipe dream.”

“This is not a relief to congestion today by any stretch; this money would be better invested in public transit, which could be built far faster,” Crombie said.

Taking resources away from housing

The tunnel beneath Hwy. 401 could siphon resources away from housing construction, warns Dr. Saxe.

“That’s a lot of the same materials, that’s a lot of the same workers,” she said, adding that the number of people on the job would be better focused on projects, such as housing.

The Premier said the tunnelling would go smoother than Boston’s infamous “big dig,” beset by delays and massive cost overruns. That project took 25 years to complete and cost at least $8 billion.

“It’s something that you have to be a visionary,” Premier Ford said. “You have to look at the cost of $11 billion a year it’s costing our economy, not to mention how do you put time on people’s lives that are stuck in traffic?

Premier Ford confirmed on Wednesday that the new expressway beneath Hwy. 401 would not be tolled.

While the highway can be built, it isn’t needed right now: Dr. Saxe

From an engineering perspective, the tunnel can be built, contends Dr. Saxe, but she calls it, “a very mid-20th century idea about infrastructure,” noting this approach to dealing with traffic congestion is rarely used anymore.

“It’s been widely accepted as a huge waste of money, and hard to maintain, hard to use, dangerous.”

Premier Ford has pitched the idea as a way to ease congestion on Hwy. 401, but Dr. Saxe says it likely won’t.

“Just like anything, there’s a supply and demand relationship,” she explained, noting that more drivers will be incentivized to use the new lanes until they too soon fill up.

“There’s no science, facts, transportation planning or economics that says this is a good idea.”

Officials will explore options to increase Hwy. 401 capacity, including potential routes within the existing right-of-way, number of lanes, length, and the number and design of interchanges connecting to other highways.

The Toronto Region Board of Trade applauded the province’s plan.

“We need big and bold ideas and a transit line under Hwy. 401 is exactly the kind of visionary thinking governments should pursue,” it said. “The Hwy. 401 tunnel expressway feasibility study marks a pivotal moment in addressing the GTHA’s deepening congestion crisis.”