Minorities to be majorities in two Canadian cities by 2031: Statistics Canada

TORONTO, Ont. – The proportion of visible minorities in Canada, already one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world, is set to explode in the coming decades and account for one-third of the
population, Statistics Canada projects.

In a projection released Tuesday, Statistics Canada said that by 2031 up to 14.4-million people in Canada could be a visible minority, with so-called minorities becoming the majority in two major cities.

Driven largely by immigration, but also birth rates and younger median ages among visible minorities, the projection suggests the face of Canada will change dramatically over half a century.

In 1981, there were about one-million Canadians — five per cent of the population — who identified themselves as visible minorities. The projection for 2031 is more than double the 5.3-million visible minorities counted in the 2006 census.

The largest visible minority group is projected to be South Asian, which includes people from India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Statistics Canada projects the South Asian population could double in 2031 to 4.1-million from roughly 1.3-million in 2006.

The second largest visible minority group is projected to be Chinese, but while both groups will see large increases, the rate at which the Chinese population grows will be lower, Statistics Canada said.

South Asians would make up 28 per cent of Canada’s visible minority population in 2031, up from 25 per cent in 2006, according to the projection. The Chinese population, while also projected to double, could be 21 per cent of the population in 2031, down slightly from 24 per cent in 2006.

Statistics Canada takes its definition of a visible minority from the federal Employment Equity Act, which is “persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour.”

The percentage of foreign-born people in Canada is projected to grow about four times faster than the rest of the population between now and 2031. That would mean the total proportion of foreign-born people would account for between 25 and 28 per cent of Canada’s population, or up to 12.5-million.

By 2031, most visible minorities — 71 per cent — are projected to live in Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal, building on a trend that has seen immigrants move to urban centres in large numbers.

The largest proportion by far is projected to live in Toronto, where Statistics Canada projects white people would be a visible minority by 2031. The agency said 63 per cent of the population will be a visible minority in three decades, up from 43 per cent counted in the 2006 census.

In Vancouver, the population of visible minorities is projected to reach 59 per cent, up from 42 per cent in 2006.

By 2031 one-quarter of Torontonians will be South Asians and one-quarter of Vancouverites will identify themselves as Chinese, Statistics Canada projects.

In Montreal, visible minority groups would represent 31 per cent of the population, with the increase in that area driven by an increase in blacks and Arabs.

The numbers may seem insignificant compared with the majorities in Toronto and Vancouver, but the visible minority population will double in many other areas, even if it is from five to 10 per cent in Brantford, Ont., or one to two per cent in Saguenay, Que.

The projections confirm that smaller centres and rural communities will look nothing like Canada’s largest cities in the years to come.

According to the latest census data 69 per cent of the 1.1-million people who immigrated to Canada between 2001 and 2006 settled in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal.

During that time Canada’s visible minority population increased by more than 27 per cent, according to census data.